Google Tech Talk
On October 4, 2013 Tom Bleier, Vice President, QuakeFinder Humanitarian R&D gave a tech talk at Google on the topic of “Is it possible to Forecast Earthquakes?” This link is to the 53 minute talk.
A Stellar Solutions Humanitarian R&D Project
Quakefinder Blog
Lightning and QuakeFinder Equipment
Lightning strikes are a common occurrence which QuakeFinder sites can detect. Unfortunately, a lightning strike looks very similar to the earthquake pulses that we look for prior to large quakes. The rise time of a lightning strike’s magnetic component is faster, and the lightning pulse duration is shorter than the ground-based magnetic pulses. Utilizing information provided to us by our friends at Earth Networks, we also have independent confirmation for lightning strikes. They generously donate daily lightning event files for the entire planet. We are tuning our algorithms to sort through these large files to select the strikes at an appropriate distance from each of our 140 sites to “mask out” the suspect pulses. The remaining pulses are then counted for analysis of pre-quake activity.
In addition to contaminating our data, lightning can actually damage our equipment. Our site in Hangshen, Taiwan was hit by lightning which fried all the electronics and damaged the battery. This site is being replaced this month in addition to two new sites installed in Taiwan. Earlier this month, a lightning strike destroyed a 120VAC surge suppressor feeding our site in Pt. Arena, California. Tim, the site owner at that location, identified the problem and quickly replaced the surge suppressor. Thank you Tim! We appreciate all our site owners for allowing us to use their land and assisting with minor maintenance.
In addition to contaminating our data, lightning can actually damage our equipment. Our site in Hangshen, Taiwan was hit by lightning which fried all the electronics and damaged the battery. This site is being replaced this month in addition to two new sites installed in Taiwan. Earlier this month, a lightning strike destroyed a 120VAC surge suppressor feeding our site in Pt. Arena, California. Tim, the site owner at that location, identified the problem and quickly replaced the surge suppressor. Thank you Tim! We appreciate all our site owners for allowing us to use their land and assisting with minor maintenance.
QuakeFinder recognized by the White House/Office of Science, Technology Policy
QuakeFinder was recognized at a White House ceremony on June 20, 2013, during which Obama Administration officials honored 13 leaders and organizations as “Champions of Change”, and 10 individuals and organizations as Open Science Poster Presenters for their work using and promoting open scientific data and publications to grow our economy and improve our world.
A call for nominations issued last month resulted in hundreds of extraordinary candidates across a wide range of scientific disciplines—from biomedicine, archeology, astronomy and medieval writings. QuakeFinder was honored to be selected as one of the 10 Open Science Poster Presenters, in recognition of QuakeFinder’s leading-edge, earthquake-related scientific research.
At the event, the poster presenters were invited to highlight projects and initiatives that are helping make “open” the default for scientific research results and had the opportunity to share with attendees how they will continue to promote open science going forward. QuakeFinder’s poster illustrated how they collect earthquake-related science data from more than 140 instruments around the world, process the raw data into reader-viewable daily plots, and then publish the plots on an open website daily for anyone to view. In addition, they share the raw data with several universities.
In remarks, John P. Holdren, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, congratulated the new Champions for their outstanding efforts “to generate, promote, and use open scientific data as fuel for new products, successful businesses, and game-changing scientific insights.” Holdren also emphasized the power and potential benefits of unleashing scientific information for broad use, explaining that “the proposition behind open science is a simple one: more value is derived from scientific results when more people can access and use them.”
About QuakeFinder
QuakeFinder is the world’s leading private research organization focused on creating a system for forecasting major earthquakes. Operating as a humanitarian R&D division of Stellar Solutions and funded primarily by Stellar Solutions, with grants from NASA, and subscriptions, and sponsorships from the public, QuakeFinder has developed the science, technology, infrastructure and expertise that are the foundation for a practical earthquake forecasting solution.
Contact: Tom Bleier650-473-9870
tbleier@quakefinder.com
Who do you tell if you have generated an earthquake forecast?
In the history of QuakeFinder we have used historical sensor data in our analysis of predicting earthquakes. QuakeFinder is making significant progress towards the goal of forecasting earthquakes using each day’s new data.
To be in a position to make a forecast for a specific time, location and magnitude we would need to see a two week pattern of all of the following:
• a 2-4 day pattern of increased unipolar pulses
• 1 day pattern of increased positive air conductivity
• an increased GOES satellite Infrared signal over the same ground site
In addition all the data would need to be reviewed and vetted. Who do we provide such a forecast to and how would it be tested and validated? USGS has the congressional mandate to issue all earthquake forecasts in the United States. While that might sound simple, with the present system it is complicated. USGS won’t issue a forecast until the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) reviews it.
The Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), which is operated by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), held a conference in May aimed at coordinating the external testing of earthquake forecasts, regardless if they were generated from seismic event patterns modeling or electromagnetic monitoring methods. QuakeFinder participated in and presented at this conference. Presently CSEP only reviews forecasts that run on CSEP computers and use seismicity data.
The SCEC has undertaken a project, funded by the Department of Homeland Security, to develop a facility for registering and testing external forecasting and prediction (EFP) procedures; i.e., those run outside the existing CSEP. This facility will allow investigators to document their methods and submit forecasts and predictions for retrospective and prospective testing in accordance with collaboratory standards.
Coordination of testing is an important, and necessary, first step in the process of vetting future earthquake forecasts as we work towards government and emergency responder community acceptance of forecasts. When you consider the potential consequences of actually making a forecast, it is a necessary step. There are several groups, including QuakeFinder, going through the registration and testing process.
To be in a position to make a forecast for a specific time, location and magnitude we would need to see a two week pattern of all of the following:
• a 2-4 day pattern of increased unipolar pulses
• 1 day pattern of increased positive air conductivity
• an increased GOES satellite Infrared signal over the same ground site
In addition all the data would need to be reviewed and vetted. Who do we provide such a forecast to and how would it be tested and validated? USGS has the congressional mandate to issue all earthquake forecasts in the United States. While that might sound simple, with the present system it is complicated. USGS won’t issue a forecast until the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) reviews it.
The Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), which is operated by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), held a conference in May aimed at coordinating the external testing of earthquake forecasts, regardless if they were generated from seismic event patterns modeling or electromagnetic monitoring methods. QuakeFinder participated in and presented at this conference. Presently CSEP only reviews forecasts that run on CSEP computers and use seismicity data.
The SCEC has undertaken a project, funded by the Department of Homeland Security, to develop a facility for registering and testing external forecasting and prediction (EFP) procedures; i.e., those run outside the existing CSEP. This facility will allow investigators to document their methods and submit forecasts and predictions for retrospective and prospective testing in accordance with collaboratory standards.
Coordination of testing is an important, and necessary, first step in the process of vetting future earthquake forecasts as we work towards government and emergency responder community acceptance of forecasts. When you consider the potential consequences of actually making a forecast, it is a necessary step. There are several groups, including QuakeFinder, going through the registration and testing process.